Trump Blames Ukraine for Rising Gas Prices. The Market Story Is More Complex.

On October 5, 2026, President Donald Trump said Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and refinery closures in Democratic-led U.S. states were contributing to higher gasoline prices. He argued that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz were no longer the main cause. His remarks focused on gasoline prices at the pump, which are different from the global price of crude oil. As Iran War Drives up Gasoline Prices in US, Trump Blames Ukraine ...

Crude Oil and Gasoline Are Not the Same

Crude oil is the raw material refineries process into gasoline, diesel, and other fuels. The price drivers overlap, but they are not identical. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says pump prices reflect crude oil costs, refining, distribution and marketing, and taxes. A disruption at a refinery can affect the supply of finished fuel even when crude oil prices do not move by the same amount. Factors affecting gasoline prices - U.S. Energy Information ...

That distinction matters when assessing Trump’s claim. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries could reduce the amount of fuel those facilities can produce or export. But that possibility alone does not prove that Ukraine is responsible for all increases in U.S. gasoline prices.

What the Price Data Shows

On October 6, AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was $4.3685 per gallon. That was higher than the $4.1473 average a month earlier, but lower than the $4.4558 average a week earlier. The figures show why a price trend needs a clearly stated time period: the average had risen over the month but fallen from the prior week. AAA Fuel Prices

Why Refinery Disruptions Can Matter

Refineries turn crude oil into the fuels drivers use. When a refinery loses capacity, supplies of gasoline or diesel can tighten, and prices may respond. The effect can differ by fuel and region, and it may not appear at every gas station at the same time.

The International Energy Agency reported in September that Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries had intensified. It said Russian refinery throughput fell in June to 3.8 million barrels per day, about 30% below the same period a year earlier. The agency also estimated lower gasoline and diesel output and noted that Russia had restricted fuel exports to protect domestic supplies. This supports the idea that refinery strikes can affect fuel markets, particularly diesel, but it does not establish them as the sole cause of U.S. gasoline prices. Russian refining sector struggles amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks ...

Some claims about the scale of the damage remain uncertain. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said its strikes had disabled 51% of Russia’s oil-refining capacity, but the Associated Press reported that it could not independently verify that figure. Readers should distinguish between a government’s claim and a figure that has been independently confirmed. Ukraine Claims to Have Taken Out More Than Half of Russia's Oil ...

The Strait of Hormuz and Other Pressures

Trump also argued that the Strait of Hormuz was no longer the main factor driving gasoline prices. Reuters reported that energy prices had risen after Iran disrupted access to the waterway, which normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies. The EIA said disruptions to oil flows through the strait contributed to higher and more volatile crude prices during the second quarter of 2026. As Iran War Drives up Gasoline Prices in US, Trump Blames Ukraine ...

Taken together, the reporting points to several potential pressures on fuel markets: crude supply disruptions, refinery damage, refinery closures, and the costs of producing and moving finished fuels. The importance of each factor can change over time. No single statement or headline can establish how much each one contributed to the price at the pump. Factors affecting gasoline prices - U.S. Energy Information ...

What Readers Should Keep in Mind

A careful assessment separates what Trump said from what the available data shows. Ukrainian strikes may disrupt Russian fuel production, while conditions in the Strait of Hormuz can affect global oil flows. U.S. gasoline prices also reflect refining, distribution, taxes, and local market conditions.

The clearest conclusion is that refinery disruptions can be part of the explanation, but blaming Ukraine alone leaves out other forces affecting fuel prices. This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.